NFL Metrics & Point Ladders
Open any factor to see the metric, thresholds and calculation used on the leaderboard. SRS means Simple Rating System: a team rating based on scoring margin and schedule strength; zero is league average. A point ladder assigns a fixed award to each interval rather than estimating a win probability.
Opponent Strength /55
SRS is a regular-season rating based on scoring margin and strength of schedule. Zero is league average. Each game has equal weight. Map each opponent to the ladder, adjust for eligible availability once, then average. Higher points mean stronger opponents.
| Opponent SRS | Points /55 |
|---|
| Below -12 | 0 |
| -12 to below -9 | 5.5 |
| -9 to below -6 | 11 |
| -6 to below -3 | 22 |
| -3 to below -1 | 27.5 |
| -1 to below 1 | 33 |
| 1 to below 3 | 38.5 |
| 3 to below 6 | 44 |
| 6 to below 8 | 49.5 |
| 8 to below 10 | 50.875 |
| 10 to below 12 | 52.25 |
| 12 to below 14 | 53.625 |
| 14 or higher | 55 |
Exact cutoffs enter the higher band. Opponent availability is not deducted again from Matchup.
Opponent availability adjustment
Opponent rates: QB 8, other core 1. Use the same signed season-relative formula. Cap a positive opponent total at 110/9. Adjusted Strength = max(0, min(55, raw Strength − min(110/9, signed amount))). Apply limits before averaging; negative opponent amounts can increase Strength.
NFL eligibility: ordinary non-QB starts ≥ ceiling(schedule × 25%); midseason acquisition starts ≥ max(2, ceiling(remaining team games × 50%)). Opening-day QB qualifies with one start; later replacements use the ordinary threshold. Count one established QB role. Valid unit plays include overtime; exclude no-plays, special teams and conversions.
Matchup Disadvantage /10
Subtract the champion’s regular-season SRS from each opponent’s SRS. Map to the ladder and average equally across the actual games. Higher points mean the champion was more outmatched; this is not a betting probability.
| Opponent minus champion SRS | Points /10 |
|---|
| Below -12 | 0 |
| -12 to below -9 | 1 |
| -9 to below -6 | 2 |
| -6 to below -3 | 3 |
| -3 to below -1 | 4 |
| -1 to below 1 | 5 |
| 1 to below 3 | 6 |
| 3 to below 6 | 7 |
| 6 to below 9 | 8 |
| 9 to below 12 | 9 |
| 12 or higher | 10 |
Advancement /15
15 × required wins ÷ longest announced route that season.
Count required victories, not games played. A bye adds no phantom opponent.
Road wins /5
Road wins: 0 → 0; 1 → 2; 2 → 3.5; 3+ → 5. The Super Bowl counts as neutral.
Actual Resistance /10
Average game points equally. Overtime overrides margin. No additional comeback or elimination bonus.
| Playoff win | Points |
|---|
| Any overtime win | 10 |
| Regulation margin 1–3 | 9 |
| Margin 4–8 | 7 |
| Margin 9–16 | 4 |
| Margin 17–24 | 2 |
| Margin 25+ | 0 |
Champion Availability /5
Player amount = role rate × (regular-season games played ÷ scheduled games − playoff medical availability share). Champion rates: QB 3, other core 0.5. Sum within each game, cap positive totals at 5, retain negatives, then average games.
NFL eligibility: ordinary non-QB starts ≥ ceiling(schedule × 25%); midseason acquisition starts ≥ max(2, ceiling(remaining team games × 50%)). Opening-day QB qualifies with one start; later replacements use the ordinary threshold. Count one established QB role. Valid unit plays include overtime; exclude no-plays, special teams and conversions.
Playing hurt does not receive an assumed effectiveness penalty. Documented medical unavailability and qualifying external suspensions count; healthy benching does not. Ranges preserve unresolved exposure.
League size /1
| Teams | Points |
|---|
| 12 or fewer | 0 |
| 13–18 | 0.25 |
| 19–24 | 0.5 |
| 25–28 | 0.75 |
| 29+ | 1 |
Schedule length /1
| Regular-season games | Points |
|---|
| 10 or fewer | 0 |
| 11–12 | 0.25 |
| 13–14 | 0.5 |
| 15 | 0.75 |
| 16+ | 1 |
Prior playoff workload /2
Official playoff games across the two prior seasons.
| Games | Points |
|---|
| 0–1 | 0 |
| 2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1 |
| 4–5 | 1.5 |
| 6+ | 2 |
At least 11 current postseason starters must have appeared for the franchise in each credited prior regular season.
Two prior deep runs /0.5
0.5 for reaching the format-relevant semifinal/conference-final stage in both prior seasons; otherwise 0.
At least 11 current postseason starters must have appeared for the franchise in each credited prior regular season.
Defending champion /0.5
0.5 for entering as defending champion; otherwise 0.
At least 11 current postseason starters must have appeared for the franchise in each credited prior regular season.
Why a linked adjustment can appear
Do not combine mutually incompatible exposure extremes. The 1988, 1990 and 1999 entries retain an adjudicated −1/3 adjustment to the upper envelope. This reconciles category bounds with the supported total; it is not another scoring category.
NFL tiers: exact total including Context